USDA Report Provides a Bullish Surprise – Time to Revisit Your Marketing Plan

November’s USDA Supply and Demand report provided a welcome bullish surprise for grain markets following the significant selloff from September highs. The report offered some muchneeded support, particularly for corn and soybeans, and helped spark a strong recovery in futures prices. Corn finished the day up 9 cents, soybeans gained nearly 40 cents, and wheat added 4 cents.

CORN

The USDA lowered its U.S. corn yield estimate by 1.6 bushels per acre to 179.6 BPA, coming in below trade expectations. While record yields were still projected in four states, several major producing states saw significant reductions, including an 8 BPA decline in Illinois. This adjustment provided a more supportive outlook for the corn balance sheet. 

SOYBEANS

Soybean yields increased to 53.3 BPA, but the increase was smaller than the trade had anticipated. Demand also remains encouraging, with USDA raising soybean export projections of 25 million bushels. Strong export demand continues to be an important factor supporting the soybean market. 

WHEAT

Wheat saw limited changes to the U.S. balance sheet. However, increased production expectations in Argentina, Australia and Ukraine are creating a slightly more bearish global supply outlook. Despite this, wheat managed to finish higher, benefiting from the strength across the broader grain complex.

What Happens Next?

With much of the 2026/27 crop now harvested and, in the bins, the market is beginning to get a clearer picture of overall U.S. production. Attention will now shift toward South American crop development, global demand, and particularly China's buying activity. 

Geopolitical developments will also remain on the market's radar. Russia and Ukraine held peace discussions yesterday, focusing primarily on humanitarian issues. India has also expressed interest in helping facilitate protected food corridors through the Black Sea to improve the movement of grain exports. While there is no concrete agreement yet, any progress toward safer shipping and fewer disruptions to port infrastructure could allow more Ukrainian and Russian grain to reach global markets. This would increase competition among global exporters and could create additional pressure on wheat and corn prices. 

The next major USDA report in January will be closely watched for potential additional revisions to U.S. yield and production estimates. 

The recent rally also raises an important question: Have futures finally established a bottom following the decline from September's highs? While it is too early to say with certainty, the market may begin to establish a trading range as it works through the latest production numbers and looks ahead to the next growing season. As we move toward 2027 planting decisions, traders will increasingly focus on acreage estimates and what U.S. farmers intend to plant.

Ontario Harvest Update & Marketing Opportunities

Ontario harvest results have generally been very encouraging. Soybean yields have been excellent, a good amount of winter wheat has been planted behind the soybean crop, and corn harvest is now in its later stages, with yields also coming in strong. 

The Canadian dollar has faced some recent pressure, which can provide additional support to Ontario cash prices through stronger basis levels.

Marketing Takeaways for Farmers

Following yesterday's market rally, now is a good time to revisit your grain marketing plan. 

• Have targets in place: Consider placing offers on any additional rallies to take advantage of improved futures prices rather than waiting for the market to reach its absolute high. 
• Be proactive with new crop: Start establishing price targets and consider placing new crop offers at profitable levels. Opportunities to lock in attractive margins can come before spring planting. 
• Watch basis opportunities: A weaker Canadian dollar can provide support to local cash bids. Keep an eye on both futures and basis when evaluating your selling opportunities.

November's report provided some positive momentum for grain markets, but volatility is likely to remain as the market shifts its attention toward South American production, global demand and geopolitical developments in the Black Sea region. Rather than trying to pick the market bottom or top, focus on having a disciplined marketing plan, knowing your cost of production, and taking advantage of opportunities when they present themselves

Read the full November WASDE Report