Dave Snowdon
Grain Originator
Perth County
Did Chicago finally wake up yesterday and begin to listen to the crop conditions the USDA has been reporting for weeks?
Wheat
The WASDE report projected winter wheat production around 1.05 billion bushels, roughly 100 million bushels below what the trade was expecting.
Drought continues to strengthen in parts of the US Southern Plains, resulting in possibly the lowest wheat production since 1972.
As a result, both Kansas and Chicago futures exchanges traded up limit following the release of the report, creating selling opportunities for farmers.
Ontario new crop wheat values delivered elevator off the combine broke $8.00bu. Also 2027 SRW delivered elevator at harvest traded at $8.25bu. Historically, a great place to sell wheat.
Soybeans
The soy complex remains supported by strong crush margins and elevated soy oil prices.As long as the price of a barrel of oil remains elevated, causing high fuel prices, there is strong demand to blend as much bio energy into fuels as possible.
When peace comes to the middle east and the price of oil drops, we could see the value of soybeans drop as well.
With today’s eyes, the market is paying a premium for soybeans that are correlated to the price of a barrel of oil.
Corn
Corn production was estimated at 15.995 billion bushels, with a national average yield of 183.0 bushel per acre. If achieved, production would be 1.026 billion bushels, less than the 2025 crop, but would still be the 2nd largest crop produced on record.
With approximately 60% of the US corn crop in the ground, weather will be the major factor determining price direction over the coming months.
Parts of the Corn Belt are still holding decent soil moisture for now, but dryness in sections of the western Midwest is being monitored. Every weather forecast will cause volatility as the crop develops.
Trade Watch
“Beef, Beans and Boeing” appear to be the big discussion points on Trumps trade summit meeting with China this week. These negotiations aim to secure a “trade truce” aiming for increased Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, including soybeans, poultry, and aircraft to reduce trade tensions.