Three Crops, Three Different Stories

The USDA can give us the numbers. The weather can give us surprises. The market can give us opportunities. But none of us knows exactly where the high will be. 

The USDA released its August WASDE report, giving us the first major look at 2026 US corn and soybean yield potential. The report provided a mixed picture – corn was supportive, soybeans were a little more bearish and wheat continues to show tight US supplies against a better supplied global market.Let’s break it down.

CORN

USDA lowered its 2026 US corn yield estimate to 180.7 bu/ac, down from 183.0 in July. Despite the lower yield, increased harvested acres pushed total production slightly higher to 16.013 billion bushels, compared to 16.0 billion last month. 

The bigger story is ending stocks. USDA lowered projected 26/27 corn carryout to 1.653 billion bushels, down from 1.790 billion in July and below trade expectations. 

This is a supportive adjustment for corn. The US is still producing a very large crop, but the lower yield estimate gives the balance sheet less room for error. 

With August weather still capable of influencing final yield potential, corn prices will continue to watch both supply and demand closely. 

BOTTOM LINE: Supportive for corn but this is still a VERY large US crop. 

SOYBEANS

Soybeans brought a different story. 

USDA lowered the national average yield slightly to 52.7 bu/ac from 53.0 in July. However, increased harvested acres more than offset the yield decline, pushing production up to 4.519 billion bushels compared with 4.475 billion last month. 

Projected 26/27 ending stocks also increased to 320 million bushels, up from 310 million. 

This puts more emphasis on demand. Strong exports, domestic crush and biofuel demand will be important if the market is going to absorb the additional production. 

BOTTOM LINE: A more bearish report for soybeans with demand needing to do more heavy lifting. 

WHEAT

Wheat continues to have a tight US balance sheet. 

USDA trimmed 2026 all wheat production slightly to 1.531 billion bushels, compared with 1.536 billion in July. US ending stocks were also reduced to 717 million bushels down from 722 million. 

The US supply situation remains supportive but GLOBAL supplies tell a different story. WORLD 26/27 wheat ending stocks increased slightly to 273.3 million tonnes, compared to 272.8 million in July. 

The larger global supply keeps competition in the wheat market and limits how bullish the US balance sheet alone can be. 

BOTTOM LINE: Tight US supplies are supportive, but global production remains the key to a sustained wheat rally. 

THE TAKEAWAY

August WASDE gave us three very different stories: 

• CORN: Lower yield and tighter carryout – supportive 
• SOYBEANS: Larger production and higher stocks – more bearish 
• WHEAT: Tight US supplies but adequate global stocks – cautiously supportive 

The other thing to remember is the 2026 corn and soybean crops are still in the field. August weather will continue to influence corn and soybean yield potential, while demand and global production will remain important drivers across the three markets. 

We don’t need to predict the exact market highs. We need to be prepared to recognize opportunities when they show up and act on them.

Read the full August WASDE Report