As we flip the calendar into August, the window for meaningful market movement in grains before harvest narrows quickly. While many growers have already priced some of their new crop, others are still watchingand waiting. If you're positioning corn or soybeans this month, here are fivecritical market drivers to monitor.

1. Currency Watch: Basis Hinges on the Dollar

The Canadian dollar plays a powerful role in shaping local basis values. A weaker loonie compared to the U.S. dollar often strengthens basis for Canadian grain, giving you a better cash price at delivery. On the flip side, a stronger dollar can erode your pricing power.

Keep an eye on:

• Currency trends
• Global inflation
• Tariff or trade policy changes

Pro tip: Even modest currency fluctuations can move your bottom line. Don’t overlook this quiet but influential market factor.

2. Follow the Funds: Watch the Money Flow

Managed money is currently short on both corn and soybeans. If they continue to sell, it’ll add pressure. But if a friendly market event unfolds (weather shift, geopolitical movement, etc.), funds could begin exiting those short positions—and that shift could trigger a sharp price bounce. Stay alert for any signs of that momentum change.

What to watch:

• Commodity fund movements
• Weather changes
• Trade headlines or political news

This is a high-alert area. A sudden shift in momentum could open a short-lived window of opportunity.

3. Demand Trends: Corn Steady, Soybeans Split — Strong Domestic, Weak Exports

• Corn demand is encouraging. Ethanol production remains stable, livestock feed usage is supportive, and U.S. corn exports have improved.
• Soybeans, meanwhile, are seeing strong crush margins and biofuel demand, but exports have slumped. But export demand is lagging, largely due to weaker buying from China.

China continues to pivot toward South American soybeans, with ongoing trade tensions, creating a drag on U.S. prices. Keep an eye on export sales reports and global buyer shifts.

4. Weather: Will It Turn in Time to Matter?

As of early August, according to the USDA, crop ratings remain strong:

• U.S. corn: 72% rated good-to-excellent
• U.S. soybeans: 70% rated good-to-excellent

These are solid numbers for this point in the season, and they’re likely limiting any significant weather rally. With only 2–4 weeks left before harvest, pressure builds; the market needs a real weather story now if it's going to create a supply-driven bounce.  Not seeing any weather models to support this type of event at this time.

Unless a late-season weather curveball hits, don’t expect this to be a major price driver.

5. Seasonal Patterns: Know Them, but Don’t Rely on Them

Seasonal trends provide a useful framework, but they’re not guarantees. Looking at the 15-year seasonal pattern, we traditionally see highs in the spring months. For 2025 November Soybean futures we see that the most attractive pricing occurred early, in February, with some smaller rallies in spring.

The chart below highlights this tendency. The green box shows the typical August window—often a last chance for modest gains before the seasonal downtrend begins. The red arrows emphasize the possible short-lived rally and the swift move lower as harvest nears.

Final Thoughts: Now Is Not the Time to Wait

If you haven’t priced any of your 2025 crop yet, get started now. Watch the market closely in the coming weeks—this is when pennies make dollars. If you see a nickel, take the nickel. Don’t hold out for a home run in a year when singles and bunts may be the only plays.

Here are your next steps:

• Revisit your grain marketing plan
• Set realistic target prices
• Mark decision dates on your calendar
• Be ready to pull the trigger if you see a profitable opportunity

Marketing is how you get paid—I’m in the business of writing cheques, not collecting them. Revisit your plan often, stay disciplined, and be ready to act. Have market targets in place, and make sure your decision dates are marked. Don’t let opportunity slip by while you’re waiting for the perfect price.

Need Help Building a Marketing Strategy?

Talk to your local Grain Originator. We’ll help you analyze the markets, understand your cost of production, and make informed decisions to maximize your return before harvest begins.